Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.038894 0.044410 0.050471 0.057631 0.065867 0.075056 0.086099
2024-12-29 0.031002 0.038594 0.047719 0.059526 0.074445 0.092734 0.116948
2025-01-05 0.025182 0.033211 0.043459 0.057559 0.076553 0.101389 0.136551
2025-01-12 0.021490 0.029695 0.040692 0.056599 0.079182 0.110327 0.156944
2025-01-19 0.018300 0.026306 0.037489 0.054375 0.079447 0.115649 0.172510
2025-01-26 0.017000 0.025343 0.037450 0.056469 0.085915 0.130293 0.203222
2025-02-02 0.015904 0.024506 0.037430 0.058484 0.092355 0.145458 0.236460
2025-02-09 0.014956 0.023759 0.037417 0.060427 0.098791 0.161198 0.272430
2025-02-16 0.013647 0.022285 0.036081 0.060043 0.101316 0.170754 0.299057
2025-02-23 0.012657 0.021214 0.035263 0.060381 0.105009 0.182548 0.330866
2025-03-02 0.011585 0.019890 0.033877 0.059568 0.106550 0.190672 0.356884
2025-03-09 0.011023 0.019381 0.033817 0.061051 0.112309 0.206885 0.399923
2025-03-16 0.010162 0.018283 0.032655 0.060481 0.114334 0.216652 0.432228
2025-03-23 0.009759 0.017975 0.032884 0.062529 0.121577 0.237206 0.488983
2025-03-30 0.008846 0.016631 0.031069 0.060455 0.120487 0.241212 0.511847
2025-04-06 0.008166 0.015662 0.029866 0.059445 0.121387 0.249266 0.544296
2025-04-13 0.007399 0.014457 0.028095 0.057103 0.119264 0.250759 0.562370
2025-04-20 0.007208 0.014371 0.028515 0.059307 0.126990 0.274073 0.633130
2025-04-27 0.007016 0.014265 0.028881 0.061429 0.134756 0.298344 0.709459
2025-05-04 0.006826 0.014144 0.029202 0.063476 0.142570 0.323603 0.791681
2025-05-11 0.006424 0.013540 0.028451 0.063072 0.144725 0.336010 0.843564
2025-05-18 0.006120 0.013119 0.028055 0.063427 0.148689 0.353137 0.909913
2025-05-25 0.005739 0.012500 0.027173 0.062571 0.149650 0.363070 0.958672